Coloured Logic Petri Nets and analysis of their reachable trees

Logic Petri nets (LPNs) can describe and analyse the batch processing function and passing value indeterminacy in cooperative systems, and alleviate the state space explosion problem. However, the indeterminate data of logical output transitions cannot be described explicitly in LPNs. Therefore, Coloured Logic Petri nets (CLPNs) are defined in this paper. It can determine the indeterminate data of logic output transitions in LPNs, i.e., the indeterminate data can be represented definitely in CLPNs. A vector matching method is proposed to judge the enabling transitions and analyse CLPNs. From the marking equation and the proposed reachable tree generation algorithm of CLPNs, a reachable tree can be built, and reachable markings are calculated. The advantage of CLPNs can be shown based on the number of leaf nodes of the reachability tree, and CLPNs can solve the indeterminate data of logical output transitions. Finally, an example shows that CLPNs can further reduce the dimensionality of reachable markings.     

House Prices and Stock Prices: Different Roles in the US Monetary Transmission Mechanism*

We analyze the role of house prices and stock prices in the monetary‐policy transmission mechanism in the US, using a structural vector autoregressive model. If we allow the interest rate and asset prices to react simultaneously to news, we find different roles for house prices and stock prices in the monetary transmission mechanism. Following a contractionary monetary‐policy shock, stock prices fall immediately, while the response in house prices is more gradual. Regarding the systematic response in monetary policy, stock prices play a more important role than house prices. As a consequence, house prices contribute more than stock prices to fluctuations in gross domestic product and inflation.     

中国国债发行规模影响因素的实证研究

基于VAR模型,并运用协整检验、方差分解、向量自回归误差修正模型的计量经济分析方法,对我国国债规模的影响因素进行实证分析.实证结果显示,我国国债发行规模与国内生产总值、财政赤字、国债还本付息额、居民储蓄之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,影响国债规模的主要因素是国内生产总值、居民储蓄、国债发行规模本身、财政赤字.     

Mix of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Rules and Inflation Dynamics in China

The present paper examines the role of the mix of fiscal and monetary policy rules in determining inflation dynamics using fiscal and monetary policy reaction functions and Markov‐switching vector autoregression methods based on quarterly data in the period 1992–2007. Our results show that fiscal and monetary policies in China can be adequately described using some simple rules, and that significant regime shifts took place around 1998. Fiscal policy tended to be active and countercyclical in the pre‐1998 period, then switched to be passive and more countercyclical, whereas monetary policy was characterized as passive and procyclical in the pre‐1998 period, and switched to be active and countercyclical afterwards. The mix of fiscal and monetary policy rules can explain inflation dynamics better than the monetary policy rule alone. Therefore, price stability requires not only appropriate monetary policy but also appropriate fiscal policy.     

Is there a role for uncertainty in forecasting output growth in OECD countries? Evidence from a time-varying parameter-panel vector autoregressive model

This paper uses a time-varying parameter-panel vector autoregressive (TVP-PVAR) model to analyze the role played by domestic and US news-based measures of uncertainty in forecasting the growth of industrial production of 12 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Based on a monthly out-of-sample period of 2009:06 to 2017:05, given an in-sample of 2003:03 to 2009:05, there are only 46% of cases where domestic uncertainty can improve the forecast of output growth relative to a baseline monetary TVP-PVAR model, which includes inflation, interest rate and nominal exchange rate growth, besides output growth. Moreover, including US uncertainty does not necessarily improve the forecasting performance of output growth from the TVP-PVAR model which includes only the domestic uncertainty along with the baseline variables. So, in general, while uncertainty is important in predicting the future path of output growth in the 12 advanced economies considered, a forecaster can do better in majority of the instances by just considering the information from standard macroeconomic variables.     

Industry‐specific Exchange Rate Fluctuations,Japanese Exports and Financial Constraints: Evidence from Panel Vector Autoregressive Analysis

Using a panel vector autoregression approach and industry breakdown data for financial constraints obtained from the Bank of Japan's Tankan (Short‐Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan) database, this study empirically investigates whether and how Japanese firms' financial constraints (internal and external) influence the response of Japanese sectoral exports to an exchange rate shock. Furthermore, we use the industry‐specific real effective exchange rate data developed by to allow for different movements of real effective exchange rates across industries. It is found that financial constraints have a significant influence on Japanese exports in response to exchange rate shocks. Japanese exporters with either lower internal financial constraints or external financial constraints are less affected by the yen's appreciation. In addition, if firms face high external financial constraints, only reducing the internal financial constraints cannot help them mitigate the impact of the yen's appreciation on their exports. Thus, an accommodative financial environment also plays an important role in alleviating the impact that the yen's appreciation has on Japanese exports.     

A dynamic demand analysis of the United States air-passenger service

This study examines the short- and long-run effects of various determinants on the demand for US air passenger-services using the Johansen cointegration analysis and a vector error-correction (VEC) model. Results show that, in the long-run, airfare, disposable income and NASDAQ have significant effects on US air travel demand. The combined short-run dynamic effects of disposable income, NASDAQ, population and airfare jointly explain changes in air passenger-miles. Finally, we find that the 9/11 terrorist attacks drop air passenger demand by 5% during 2001:Q3-2002:Q2, which in turn pushes down the seat capacity by 4%. However, it has little impact on airfare.     

基于SVG的数据分析图表系统的系统模型的研究

随着网络技术的普及和发展,图形图像技术作为WEB浏览技术的基础,发挥着重要的作用,SVG(Scalable Vector Graphics,可伸缩的矢量图形)作为基于XML的文本化网络矢量图像格式,具有其他图像格式所不能比拟的优势和发展前景。本文在SVG标准的基础上,分析比较了WEB浏览上现有图形的显示方式。提出开发基于SVG的数据分析图表系统的系统模型。根据系统功能模型的要求,分别对三种数据源(数据库数据、XML数据文件和EXCEL表格文件)进行解析处理,实现了矢量图表的绘制及SVG格式的输出。     

基于小波变换和支持向量的国际原油价格预测

本文将小波分析与支持向量回归结合应用于国际原油价格预测,通过小波多尺度分析方法将油价时间序列分解为长期趋势和随机扰动项,然后采用支持向量回归对分解后的油价长期趋势进行预测。油价长期趋势的预测采用多因素预测方法,主要考虑市场供需基本面、库存、经济、投机等因素对石油价格走势的影响,建立多输入单输出的支持向量回归模型。实证研究表明,支持向量回归模型具有较高的预测性能,对原油价格长期趋势预测中,该方法比回归方法的预测精度高。